Modeling and Forecasting Uganda’s Beef and Cattle Milk Production using the Box-Jenkins Methodology

Beef and cattle milk production play a significant role in reducing hunger, malnutrition, rural poverty, improving livelihoods, creating employment opportunities, supporting the overall development of Uganda's economy. This study was conducted to find suitable ARIMA model for forecasting Uganda’s beef using annual time series data from 1961 2020, extracted Food Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT). Following patterns Autocorrelation Function Partial plots differenced series, 4 tentative models were identified production, i.e., (0,1,0), (1,1,0), (0,1,1), (1,1,1). While 3 (1,1,1), (0,1,1). (0,1,0) selected be most because it had smallest MAPE Normalized BIC values. On other hand, (1,1,0) best normalized value coefficient autoregressive component. Forecasts show that will increase at an average rate 1.63%, while 0.39% five-year forecast period (2021-2025). These findings are important designing strategies improve dairy livestock sub-sectors Uganda.